Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 11.023512 13.509478 16.287290 19.601162 23.425946 27.680790 32.750056
2026-02-01 7.507255 10.672628 14.613409 19.791628 26.321161 34.182887 44.256584
2026-02-08 5.361868 8.638600 13.095014 19.408786 27.913559 38.751803 53.358839
2026-02-15 3.912726 7.082996 11.754257 18.820962 28.883343 42.314809 61.159122
2026-02-22 3.174883 6.356871 11.373291 19.378923 31.290635 47.770654 71.607218
2026-03-01 2.450306 5.455115 10.532898 19.079609 32.350912 51.348281 79.619874
2026-03-08 1.958473 4.823700 9.988546 19.109625 33.815491 55.495595 88.551771
2026-03-15 1.462018 4.039317 9.029814 18.310504 33.877014 57.534505 94.507552
2026-03-22 1.238534 3.752784 8.902124 18.863275 36.071764 62.815914 105.369243
2026-03-29 1.027231 3.429948 8.643078 19.134767 37.795262 67.433726 115.413869
2026-04-05 0.862318 3.167282 8.452779 19.491944 39.659734 72.332103 126.052905
2026-04-12 0.730299 2.947060 8.308917 19.906300 41.628046 77.462530 137.222521
2026-04-19 0.555696 2.554241 7.748193 19.510345 42.259501 80.666501 145.870511
2026-04-26 0.448036 2.320892 7.509557 19.737038 44.041326 85.878306 157.968422
2026-05-03 0.336044 2.011967 7.016284 19.357596 44.650972 89.136104 167.048018
2026-05-10 0.242995 1.711917 6.468202 18.771177 44.793807 91.571516 174.852425
2026-05-17 0.203056 1.610492 6.434625 19.327988 47.185219 97.994445 189.438160
2026-05-24 0.150372 1.406918 6.056592 19.029297 47.839212 101.373595 199.057436
2026-05-31 0.115788 1.266512 5.830939 19.059251 49.148198 105.962660 210.858107
2026-06-07 0.077087 1.052862 5.305138 18.261802 48.659996 107.247889 217.044839
2026-06-14 0.063710 0.998530 5.305416 18.813414 51.067852 113.954781 232.795449
2026-06-21 0.049926 0.922131 5.205505 19.084341 52.879680 119.615716 246.890899
2026-06-28 0.039529 0.859734 5.140700 19.440776 54.897908 125.738395 261.975293